You may have noticed a lot more political ads on TV over the last couple of weeks compared to years past for the Pennsylvania primary. I have. I think it’s because there seem to be more primaries than usual. There are some PA House seats being contested on the Republican side in the Harrisburg area. You have the Democratic race in Central PA to challenge Congressman Scott Perry in November. You also have the primary for State Auditor General and Attorney General in both parties.
The primary is April 23rd.
More attention will come later this year for the November election, with the Presidential race at the top of the ticket.
I interviewed local pollster Jim Lee of Susquehanna Polling & Research about the work he does and what he’s found so far on the Presidential election and with the PA U.S. Senate race. Lee says national polling shows Donald Trump in the lead in many states but Pennsylvania has a statistical tie.
“Our poll shows Biden with a small lead of 5 points. That could change. We’re still seven months away from election day,” Lee said. “I remember in 2016 at this time when Hillary Clinton was running against Donald Trump in PA, Clinton was leading Trump by 8 points. She went on to lose to Trump in Pennsylvania.”
Lee says the average lead in the state has Biden up by a couple tenths of a percent.
“Even though Biden’s approval rating in the state is very low in the state, only 39%, the next question is if the election were held today, who would you vote for? Biden goes to a 5-point lead over Trump. Democrats put their support behind Biden because they despise Donald Trump.”
Lee says the fact that many Biden voters are really just voting against Donald Trump while Trump voters actually strongly support him, may have a big impact on turnout in November.
“We know the Trump people are coming out,” Lee said. “But the Biden folks right now are going to need a match lit under them because they don’t have the fire belly to come out and vote right now. They’re only coming out to vote against Trump. They don’t have a nominee they can be proud of right now.”
Jim also talked about the latest poll in the PA senator’s race between Dave McCormick and Bob Casey. He says Casey has a slim lead but the poll presents a more encouraging outlook for McCormick.
“Our poll shows a 48% to 42% for Bob Casey over Dave McCormick right now,” Lee said. “If you’re the Casey people, even though you’re leading, you’re probably nervous. Bob Casey has been in the U.S. Senate since 2006. That’s a long time. He’s still not over 50%. He’s had 18 years to build up his resume and credibility…but he’s still under 50%. He’s been such a back-bencher. He hasn’t really developed a strong image. On the other hand, if you’re the McCormick folks, you’re probably happy with that because six points is a gap you can close in seven months.”
